Fed: Latham gives Labor hope

AAP General News (Australia)
12-05-2003
Fed: Latham gives Labor hope

By James Grubel, Chief Political Correspondent

CANBERRA, Dec 5 AAP - On the eve of his election as Labor leader, Mark Latham knew
the political momentum was swinging his way.

At Christmas drinks in the Labor caucus room, Mr Latham was relaxed and at ease over
his fate, which would be decided in the same room the next morning.

After a hectic weekend of phoning and lobbying the 91 other members of the ALP caucus,
Mr Latham knew things were moving in his favour.

His number-crunchers had earlier briefed reporters that the numbers had swung back
Mr Latham's way. They did not have the 47 votes needed for victory at that stage, but
they were ahead of leadership rival Kim Beazley.

So as dumped leader Simon Crean made a farewell speech, Mr Latham confirmed he had
the political momentum.

"And momentum is important in politics," he said.

The next morning, Mr Latham scraped into the Labor leadership by two votes over Mr
Beazley, 47 votes to 45, in one of the most dramatic leadership contests of modern times.

The political momentum has remained on his side ever since.

The decision for Labor MPs and Senators was as clear as any leadership vote could be.

They had a choice between a safe and tested leader, or a new and radically new approach
to Labor politics.

It was a choice between the relative safety of a small target in Kim Beazley, or the
risk of putting up a big target in Mr Latham.

It was a choice between a man who talks too much and yet struggles to be understood,
and a man who talks too much and is too easily understood.

In the end, Labor took the risk and opted for the big target candidate who everyone
can understand.

The result stunned almost everybody in Parliament House.

Those present at the caucus meeting reported Beazley backers were ashen-faced when
they realised they had been outmanoeuvred.

And there was an audible gasp from reporters when the result, and the numbers, were read out.

On the other side, Prime Minister John Howard and his team were equally surprised at the outcome.

Given the government's reaction, it is clear Mr Howard was planning a rerun of his
past two election campaigns against Mr Beazley.

In that sense, for the time being at least, Labor's decision caught the government
off-guard and sent a ripple of panic through coalition ranks.

Mr Howard's initial reaction was to do what he does best -- hit the media airwaves.

In a little over 24 hours, the prime minister conducted three television interviews
and one radio interview to sell his policies and to condemn Labor's new leadership.

Ministers then lined up in question time in parliament to raise their concerns about
the new Labor leader and his record on a range of policies.

For three days they hammered Mr Latham for his claim earlier this year that United
States President George W Bush was incompetent and dangerous over his push for war on
Iraq.

And for three days, Mr Latham refused to resile from his comments, although he said
he would be more temperate with his language now he was Opposition Leader.

As part of his fence-mending over the past week, Mr Latham sought out US Ambassador
to Australia Tom Schieffer to smooth over any misunderstandings and to reinforce his support
for the Australia-US alliance.

By the week's end, Mr Latham could be well pleased with his efforts.

He has welcomed Mr Crean and key Beazley backer Stephen Smith to the frontbench in
a sign of internal reconciliation.

He has guaranteed another critic, Kevin Rudd, that he can keep the prized foreign affairs
portfolio.

And he has drawn a line under his past colourful and outspoken comments and promised
to be more careful with his language.

But perhaps more importantly, he enjoyed a week where the government made Mr Latham
the issue, and where the government fought on Mr Latham's home turf.

Mr Howard and Foreign Minister Alexander Downer did much of the work of reminding voters
that Mr Latham is happy to be critical of the US, especially when it is leading Australia
to war.

The prime minister missed the final question time of the year because he had to fly
off to Nigeria, where he will end his time as chairman of the Commonwealth Heads of Government
Meeting (CHOGM).

That job has caused Mr Howard nothing but grief as he has tried to deal with the rift
between African countries and the remainder of the Commonwealth over Zimbabwe and its
undemocratic leader Robert Mugabe.

It is clear he would rather have stayed at home to work out how to take on Mr Latham
in what is shaping up as a generational contest.

Mr Latham is 22 years younger than Mr Howard.

And Mr Latham is fresh, and interesting -- something Mr Howard is rarely accused of.

While Labor could self-destruct under Mr Latham, Mr Howard knows that is not guaranteed.

And he knows that if you stonewall long enough, people stop worrying about past comments
and concentrate on the present and future. Remember Lazarus with a triple bypass and his
promise to "never-ever" introduce a GST?

For the time being, at least, Mr Latham has given every sign that he can keep his party
together and at the same time engage voters and media interest.

He has hit the airwaves to let voters know who he is and what he stands for. And so
far, he has made no major mistakes.

There is every chance he could lead Labor into the Christmas break with the political
momentum swinging back in the ALP's favour.

And as Mr Latham says, momentum is important in politics, especially going into an election year.

AAP jg/sb/sjb/de

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